Head to head: Duterte leads Robredo in OCTA survey

MANILA, Philippines — If the presidential election was held today and the contenders were Vice President Sara Duterte and former vice president and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, the former would win, a survey conducted by OCTA Research showed. In its Tugon ng Masa survey held from March 19-25, 2026, OCTA Research said Duterte got 46 percent voter preference while Robredo had 35 percent. At least 19 percent of those surveyed were undecided. OCTA said that the pre-election voter preference survey highlighted Duterte's strength in Mindanao at 88 percent and in Visayas at 53 percent. Duterte also led in socioeconomic class E. Robredo, meanwhile, was strong in the National Capital Region at 52 percent and Balanced Luzon at 47 percent. OCTA said that the head to head results showed a "narrower and competitive margin than what was observed in previous quarters." "Compared with earlier survey rounds, the current head-to-head spread suggests a closer and more competitive preference landscape entering 2026," it added. It also said that while Duterte retains a clear advantage in a direct head to-head scenario, the margin separating the two candidates is no longer as wide as in previous survey periods. "This suggests that while VP Duterte remains ahead, the race appears more competitive in Q1 2026 than in earlier quarters," the pollster said. The survey had 1,200 respondents and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

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