The Manila Times
IF presidential elections were held today, Vice President Sara Duterte would win in a head-to-head battle with Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, OCTA Research said Monday. In its Tugon ng Masa survey conducted March 19-25, 2026, Duterte had a voter preference score of 46 percent as opposed to Robredo, who had 35 percent. Some 19 percent were undecided. OCTA noted, however, that while Duterte retains a clear advantage in a direct head to-head scenario, the margin separating the two candidates is no longer as wide as in previous survey periods. “This suggests that while VP Duterte remains ahead, the race appears more competitive in Q1 2026 than in earlier quarters,” the pollster said. It also noted the 19 percent who remain undecided was a “substantial segment” of the electorate and thus, remains movable. “This suggests that while the broad structure of the race is already visible, the current margin remains contestable and still open to movement as candidate positioning, alliances, campaign visibility, and national conditions evolve,” OCTA said. OCTA said that Duterte’s lead was due to strong regional concentration than national dominance, highlighting her supermajority lead in Mindanao at 88 percent and majority in Visayas at 53 percent. The pollster suggests that Duterte’s national advantage is reinforced by a strong southern and central regional base, giving her a strong national floor and a clear advantage in a direct two-candidate contest. Robredo, meanwhile, is strong in the National Capital Region at 52 percent and Balance Luzon at 47 percent, suggesting a geographically distinct support coalition centered in urban and northern areas. Duterte also led in Socioeconomic class E voters with 56 percent preference, followed by Classes ABC at 46 percent and Class D at 44 percent. Robredo, meanwhile, has 39 percent preference for Class ABC and 36 percent for Class D. In earlier OCTA survey with 26 names. Duterte led with 33 percent, followed by Robredo at 21 percent, then followed by Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, and Sens. Raffy Tulfo and Bam Aquino. The survey had 1,200 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent nationwide.
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