Forbes India
In its economic review released on Wednesday, the Finance Ministry warned that demand compression—on top of current supply shocks—has become a “serious concern”. The report pointed out that a supply shock in the Indian economy is “apparent”, and that high prices, rising inflation and a slowing pace of economic activity could exert pressure on demand. The ministry also noted that inflation may turn “cost-push” as businesses and producers pass on surging input costs to protect margins.On oil pricesFrom an economic perspective, the report noted that oil and gas importers in most of Asia are “worse off”. It also emphasised that building “buffers” of essential commodities (beyond energy) is no longer optional.Also Read: IMF upgrades India's FY27 growth forecastWhile domestic pass-through of global oil price shocks remains “contained”, evolving global energy market conditions pose “significant upside risks” to inflation. India’s crude basket averaged $114.46 per barrel as of April 24, up from $113.5 per barrel in March. The rise in oil prices is feeding into headline inflation through both direct and indirect channels.The most immediate impact is visible in domestic fuel prices, while the knock-on effects are being felt more broadly through higher transport and input costs across commodities and services, the report noted.In March, even as transport fuel inflation remained muted, LPG prices increased by 370 basis points. This prompted a spillover into substitute fuels such as coal and firewood prices, which rose by 180 basis points and 110 basis points respectively as households sought cheaper alternatives.The report also pointed out that supply shock has led to a sharp global inventory drawdown of 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, pushing Brent crude to a peak of around $115 per barrel, with price pressure persisting on account of uncertainty and logistical constraints.Also Read: World Bank sees India growing 6.6 percent in FY27On remittancesThe conflict also casts a shadow over one of India’s most reliable external income streams—remittances. The report noted that while remittances have historically shown “resilience to geopolitical shocks” and could show a temporary increase due to migrants’ tendency to “front-load precautionary transfers”, a prolonged crisis could weigh on labour market conditions in the region, warranting a “reassessment of current account projections”.India’s five prioritiesAgainst this backdrop, the review laid out five priorities for India to navigate the shock.First, energy security and resilience must be placed at the top of the policy agenda, including getting public transportation right to reduce import dependence, without substituting one vulnerability for another.Second, the domestic decriminalisation and deregulation agenda should not be “held hostage” to external developments; “regulatory simplification” that lowers the cost of imports and exports is particularly valuable in the current environment.Third, long-overdue agricultural reforms, removing distorted crop choices, improving productivity and getting water policy right are now urgent, especially given the forecast of a below-normal and spatially uneven monsoon.Fourth, India must invest in building AI-resilient trade skills among its youth, boosting both domestic manufacturing and services while creating new sources of export earnings that go beyond the information technology sector.Fifth, tax policy certainty and predictability must be strengthened. With India's merchandise trade deficit widening to $333.2 billion in FY26 from $283.5 billion in FY25, and further deterioration expected in FY27, short-term growth strategies must not come at the expense of broader macroeconomic goals, such as attracting foreign investment and strengthening domestic capital formation.The price of warThe report noted that after delivering real GDP growth of 7.6 percent in FY26, India enters FY27 at the intersection of “domestic resilience and external turbulence”.The data underscores the stress. Urea import prices have spiked to $950 per metric tonne from $390 a year ago, ammonia prices have more than doubled to $775 per metric tonne in the same period. Meanwhile chip prices have surged 560 percent and sulphur prices 157 percent. Daily ship arrivals at four major Indian ports—Navi Mumbai, Vishakhapatnam, Mundra and Krishnapatnam—have fallen 40.6 percent compared to the same period last year, and the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has risen to its highest level in over two years after staying “below its historical average for much of 2025”.Industrial output reflected the strain. The Index of Eight Core Industries contracted 0.4 percent in March, with fertiliser production plunging 24.6 percent due to restricted natural gas supply. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.9, its lowest since June 2022, while the RBI's Consumer Confidence Survey showed rural sentiment sliding into “pessimistic territory”.
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