Axios
This week's Supreme Court ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act has nullified some of the Democratic resistance that kept many states from pursuing extreme gerrymanders this election cycle. Why it matters: That new energy could put a fresh crop of blue and even purple states on the board as potential redistricting targets ahead of 2028, according to more than 20 federal and state Democratic lawmakers Axios spoke to. Even some legislators who previously resisted redistricting in their states appear to be warming up to the idea after Wednesday's decision. Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who won the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 7th House District, was one of several Black Caucus members who pushed back against Gov. JB Pritzker's attempt to redistrict last fall. He told Axios in a phone interview Thursday, "All things should be considered at this point." State of play: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in an interview with Politico , named New York, Illinois, Colorado and Maryland as possible targets. But the list could go well beyond that, with House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) telling Axios his home state may take another bite of the apple after drawing a new map for 2026. "We'll see what Southern states do leading into 2028, when California will respond just like we responded to Texas," Aguilar said. "We're not going to back away from a fight." Washington and Oregon are other possibilities, Aguilar told Axios. Both states would be tough lifts, he said, but the VRA ruling has meaningfully changed Democrats' calculus. Here's where Democratic redistricting efforts for 2028 stand: Maryland The state House of Delegates passed a bill in February that would have likely turned its 8-1 Democratic map into a 9-0 one. State Senate President Bill Ferguson refused to bring the measure to a vote. Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) told Axios that "the vast majority of people in Maryland wanted to move forward" and "the folks that did not hopefully got the message from the Supreme Court Wednesday about the urgency of this." "There is going to be overwhelming sentiment now for Maryland to join Virginia and California," Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said. Between the lines: "Let's see if [Ferguson] loses reelection. ... He was the obstacle," one state House delegate told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about a sensitive internal dynamic. Ferguson's primary battle with Baltimore social media influencer and small-business owner Bobby LaPin "will be close," this lawmaker said. Ferguson did not respond to an email requesting comment. A third House Democrat from Maryland told Axios there is still concern about the state Supreme Court, which is dominated by GOP appointees, but "we will see if it's enough to stop the state from reconsidering." Illinois "We can't just sit back and watch Republicans and the courts erode voter rights protection and do nothing," Ford, who is running in November for a safely blue U.S. House seat, told Axios. "This puts us in a situation where we have to figure out a new way to approach." What we're hearing: A House Democrat from Illinois, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they "don't think that there's an appetite, but, you know, it's a different landscape." "There's a 17-0 map that's out there, and that's the nuclear option in Illinois. Yep, it could be done. But what will is there to do the nuclear option? ... I don't think that that's there." However, state lawmakers could ultimately be persuaded, the Democrat said, because "if folks ... think that democracy is at stake, well, then, you can't ignore that." New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said Wednesday in a post on X that she is "working with the Legislature to change New York's redistricting process so we can fight back against Washington's attempts to rig our democracy." The state has a bipartisan redistricting commission that could be overridden by a constitutional amendment passed by two separate sessions of the state Legislature and a public ballot initiative. A House Democrat from New York told Axios that Jeffries is "dead serious" about pushing redistricting in his home state and predicted Democrats would "likely win" a public redistricting referendum. Colorado The state, arguably the Democrats' best opportunity to pick up seats, is increasingly blue with an even partisan split among its eight House seats, thanks to a bipartisan redistricting commission. Democrats are already working on securing a ballot initiative to redraw the state's congressional maps for 2028 and 2030, with an eye to picking up as many as three more seats. California Voters in the state passed a ballot initiative in November suspending its bipartisan redistricting commission until 2032, allowing Democrats to try to draw out five of the state's nine House Republicans. Now, Democrats say they may try to go after the remaining ones, with Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) telling Axios that "everything's on the table. ... I think California could probably be more aggressive." "I'm sure it's something that gets discussed between now and 2028," he added. "These are not normal times. Anything is possible," Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) said. New Jersey As in California, New Jersey legislators and voters would have to approve an amendment to the state Constitution to suspend its bipartisan redistricting commission — something that has given legislative leaders there considerable pause. The state also has a 9-3 Democratic split in its congressional delegation, making any further redraws a potential double-edged sword. However, some lawmakers are putting new pressure on their party to at least consider the move. What they're saying: Democrats need to "keep everything on the table," said Rep. Rob Menendez Jr. (D-N.J.), "and if that's the game we're going to play across the country, then I think we need to be prepared to engage." "At a minimum," he said, lawmakers should "think about what that would look like, make sure that we're ready from a process perspective and have a vision of what it could be." Wisconsin "There's a chance for redistricting for '28," Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) told Axios, pointing to a push to get the state Supreme Court's new 5-2 liberal majority to redraw the maps. Even if Democrats sweep the state Legislature in November, however, Pocan predicted they would only go so far as to try to nullify Republicans' current advantage. The party is pushing for "fair maps" and "not [a] Dem gerrymander," he said, telling Axios he "doubt[s] we'd go there." Washington "I talked to our governor about it and, unfortunately, we have a bipartisan commission, and so it's very difficult for us to do it quickly," Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told Axios. But Democrats "could try to do it for the future," she said. "Given the VRA, I'll go back and have another conversation with the gov about it and see where we are. ... We've got to figure out how to fight fire with fire." One wrinkle that Jayapal noted, however, is that Democrats already control eight of the state's 10 House seats, so "there's not much pickup opportunity there." Zoom in: Democrats would also need a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override their state's commission. "Dems don't have a super majority in either chamber, so [it] feels unlikely even if the gov called a special session," one House Democrat from Washington told Axios. Still, they added, a big win for Democrats in the state Legislature in November "could" change the conversation. Oregon Democrats already hold five of the state's six House seats, yet there have been calls to try to draw out Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.). But while Democrats control both chambers of the state Legislature, there are quorum rules that effectively allow Republicans to shut down proceedings by fleeing the state capital. Unless Democrats win supermajorities in November, redistricting "would require Republicans to show up," Rep. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) told Axios. "So ... I don't see it as feasible," she said. Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan This is where things get really tricky. All three of these purple states have at least one state legislative chamber either controlled by Republicans or, in the case of Minnesota's state House, evenly divided between the parties. A blue wave in November could help Democrats secure majorities in those chambers while retaining the states' governorships — known as a trifecta — but there would still be plenty of hurdles. The details: "Anyone seeking a map, seeking a gerrymander, would have a real problem in our state Constitution," Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) told Axios, citing restrictions on splitting up counties, municipalities and even boroughs. The state Supreme Court threw out a GOP-drawn map in 2018 under those auspices, and most of those judges are still on the court, Boyle said, "so I'm very skeptical ... a Democratic trifecta could push through a gerrymander." "We will have a national referendum on the chaos, cruelty and corruption of Donald Trump and his enablers this November," Manuel Bonder, a spokesperson for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), told Axios when asked about the possibility of mid-decade redistricting. "The Governor is focused on winning up and down the ballot and electing leaders who will take action to protect our democracy and pass a new Voting Rights Act and national anti-gerrymandering legislation." "Who the hell knows?" said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) when asked whether Michigan Democrats may make an attempt at mid-decade redistricting. She noted her state has an independent redistricting commission that is "unlikely" to get scrapped. The intrigue: Amid all of this, House Democrats told Axios they will simultaneously push legislation to eliminate gerrymandering nationwide. "Things are changing dramatically, and the public hates partisan gerrymandering, so I think we've got to give it a try," said Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee. Raskin, who told Axios he would be "centrally" involved in that effort, said he thinks some Republicans "could be persuaded" to get on board. Axios' Ryan Deto, John Frank and Torey Van Oot contributed reporting.
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