The Manila Times
LAPU-LAPU CITY — Maritime tensions in the South China Sea will be on the agenda in Cebu this week as Southeast Asian leaders open the 48th Asean Summit, with negotiations on a Code of Conduct (COC) again set for discussion alongside broader regional security and economic priorities. The leaders plan to issue a contingency plan that upholds international law, sovereignty and freedom of navigation in what could be seen as a veiled rebuke to the United States, Israel and Iran over the Middle East war that has hurt the economies in the region, according to a draft declaration. The declaration outlines a crisis plan to deal with the energy shortages and other global problems caused by the war. The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), meanwhile, said the COC will be included in the summit agenda, although officials do not expect a binding agreement to be finalized at this point. “The discussions and the negotiations on the COC, while... Asean-related are a separate negotiation by itself,” said Assistant Secretary Dominic Xavier Imperial, DFA spokesman on Asean. “It will be discussed during this summit, it will form part of the discussions under specific agenda [on] regional and international issues, so it will still be part of the discussions,” he added. Imperial said Asean members, together with China, continue negotiations on the COC with regular talks and commitments to hold more frequent engagements. He said officials see progress in the discussions and noted the sustained commitment of all parties involved, referring to the 10 Asean member states and China in the ongoing negotiations. Asean leaders are also set to endorse three key documents under the Asean Political-Security Community pillar, including a declaration on maritime cooperation. Imperial said the bloc works toward the endorsement of these outcome documents for consideration by Asean leaders. The maritime cooperation proposal seeks stronger coordination in regional waters, expansion of the Asean Coast Guard Forum and the establishment of an Asean Maritime Center In the Philippines. Leaders will also issue a statement on the Middle East crisis following earlier emergency meetings of Asean foreign ministers, as the conflict continues to affect global oil supply and fuel prices. Energy and food security also dominate the summit agenda. National responses insufficient “The adverse effects of the Middle East crisis remind us that the world is interconnected, and no country can navigate external shocks alone,” said Department of Trade and Industry Undersecretary Allan Gepty. “National responses alone are not sufficient. We must strengthen regional coordination, particularly in energy security, food security, logistics and supply chain resilience,” he said. Asean leaders are also set to consider the Cebu Protocol to Amend the Asean Charter, the first amendment since 2007, which supports the integration of Timor-Leste as the 11th member of the regional bloc. While supply chain woes sparked by the US-Israeli attack on Iran may dominate talks, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, now 11 strong with the addition of Timor-Leste, has a still-raging civil war in its own backyard. Strait talk Dwindling fuel supplies, soaring food costs and the safety of migrant workers near the Middle East conflict zone will be the most pressing issues at the summit, Marcos said in March, days after declaring a national energy emergency. “What we really need at this time is for leaders to talk about... how can we help each other,” he said, batting down rumors the summit could be called off entirely amid the crisis. But while Asean has issued broad statements about energy cooperation, it has no existing mechanisms that mandate action. The bloc’s decades-old Petroleum Security Agreement, for instance, a fuel-sharing scheme aimed at ensuring energy stability, has never been invoked and is purely voluntary. The Philippines said on Wednesday it had endorsed a group “response to the crisis” in the Middle East it hoped to issue this week, without providing details. That document would likely include a call to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ensure freedom of movement in other critical sea lanes, according to an Asean diplomat who had seen an early draft. Regional outcast Asean member state Myanmar has been formally excluded from summits like the one in Cebu since its military junta snatched power in a 2021 coup that triggered a bloody civil war and crackdown on dissent. Whether or not a recent election that installed junta leader Min Aung Hlaing as president — or the decision to move democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest — will inch it closer to a return to the fold is unclear. Min Aung Hlaing said his government would “work to restore normal relations” with Asean after he was sworn in as president last month, but the bloc — which has worked fruitlessly to restore peace for years — appears far from a consensus. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said in January that Bangkok had proposed a “calibrated engagement” with the new government, saying he hoped the election could be the “start of the transition.” “A good number” of the bloc’s members hold similarly “pragmatic” views, Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said at that month’s Asean summit. But at least a few countries are believed to be setting the bar higher. An Asean diplomat who spoke to Agence France-Presse (AFP) said the bloc had “only one card” to play with Myanmar: full diplomatic recognition. On Wednesday, the Philippines praised Myanmar’s decision to move Suu Kyi to house arrest while asking that a special envoy be granted “brief access” to the 80-year-old. Code of conduct A declaration on “maritime cooperation” is also expected to emerge from this week’s summit, but not the long-sought-after Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Asean and China have been negotiating a code of conduct to regulate behavior in the contested maritime area for more than two decades since the idea was first proposed. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam all have claims in the critical waterway, which China claims in nearly its entirety despite an international ruling that its stance has no legal basis. The Philippines, which has seen its ships engage in repeated clashes with Chinese vessels, said in February it hoped to bring long-running talks to a conclusion this year while serving as Asean chairman. However, talks have stalled repeatedly over disagreements on the code’s scope, enforcement and legal status. Manila-based geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill said that while the Philippines could be expected to stress maritime security, any pact China would agree to would lack teeth. The Southeast Asian diplomat, meanwhile, said there was “no way” Beijing would sign anything legally binding but would instead seek a “political declaration.”
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