Business Recorder
ISLAMABAD: National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has raised several questions on the proposed Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35, according to which Pakistan’s installed power generation capacity is projected to increase by 49 percent, reaching 64,035 MW by 2025, up from 43,069 MW in 2024, according to IGCEP 2025-35. A comparison between IGCEP 2025–35 and the previous IGCEP 2024–34 reveals significant changes, including delays in the commercial operation dates (CODs) of major hydropower projects such as the 2,160 MW Dasu Hydropower Project, 800 MW Mohmand Hydropower Project, and 4,500 MW Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project. Additionally, 3,109 MW of renewable energy (RE) projects have been included based on market-based induction. As a result, timelines for associated transmission and evacuation infrastructure have been adjusted accordingly. READ MORE: National Grid Company submits addendum to 10-year TSEP NEPRA framed the following questions: (i) in view of the existing surplus capacity and declining demand, what is the justification for further capacity additions? (ii) Why do the future demand projections appear unrealistic, and on what basis have such projections been used to support additional capacity expansion? (iii) Why have the already committed or optimised projects of the Provincial Governments and the utility, i.e., K-Electric, not been duly considered? (iv) Why were detailed consultations with DISCO(s) not undertaken regarding the data used, and how transparency and data integrity will be ensured in this regard? (v) Why is the plant factor of existing generation plants operating on low BTU gas not aligned with the provisions of the Gas Supply Agreements (GSA) and Power Purchase Agreements (PPA)? (vi) Why does the reported installed capacity of existing plants not correspond with their actual installed capacity? (vii) On what basis have the Commercial Operation Dates (COD) of future generation plants been determined, and why do they appear unrealistic? (viii) Why are the submitted IGCEP and TSEP not aligned with each other, and what measures are proposed to ensure consistency between these planning documents? (ix) Is the inclusion of 40 MW technology neutral Gwadar project for system reliability justified? (x) Why has the impact of the proposed capacity additions on end-consumer tariffs not been assessed and submitted? (xi) Why are the timelines for the proposed transmission projects not aligned with the Distribution Investment Plans (DIPs) of the DISCO(s)? (xii) In what manner does the proposal comply with the relevant provisions of applicable policies, plans, and procurement regulations, given the noted inconsistencies? (xiii) Why any independent third-party review or vetting of the submitted plan has not been conducted? (xiv) Any other issue with approval of the Authority. According to the government, despite consistency in country-level and spatial load forecasts between TSEP 2024–34 and IGCEP 2025–35, Discos have reported a sharp decline in grid-connected consumption. NGC attributed this to economic slowdown and the rapid expansion of net-metering and rooftop solar. However, the long-term planner considers this decline to be temporary and not sufficient to alter long-term transmission expansion decisions at this stage. It emphasised that the trend will be closely monitored, and adjustments may be made in future plans if the decline persists. The revised analysis also highlights a substantial increase in projected power exports from the national grid to K-Electric, which are now expected to reach 3,456 MW by 2035 compared to the earlier estimate of 2,050 MW. However, this increased export has not yet been incorporated into the addendum, pending detailed cost comparison studies and system reinforcement assessments by both K-Electric and NGC. The addendum focuses on revising only those scenarios where generation project timelines have changed. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for three peak demand scenarios: June 2027, June 2029, and July/August 2034. In the June 2027 scenario, revisions reflect delays in the Dasu and Mohmand hydropower projects. Earlier projections included three units of Dasu (360 MW each) and all four units of Mohmand (200 MW each). The revised scenario considers only one unit of Dasu (360 MW), with no contribution from Mohmand. Similarly, the June 2029 scenario has been revised due to delays in the Diamer Bhasha project. While earlier assumptions included five units (375 MW each), the updated scenario excludes any contribution from the project. For the July/August 2034 peak scenario—aligned with the updated planning horizon of 2034-35—all 12 units of Diamer Bhasha (375 MW each) have been considered. The scenario also incorporates around 1,400 MW of wind power optimized under IGCEP. Of this, 800 MW and 500 MW wind projects are assumed within existing networks of QESCO and Jhimpir, requiring no additional reinforcement. Despite consistency in country-level and spatial load forecasts between TSEP 2024–34 and IGCEP 2025–35, Discos have reported a sharp decline in grid-connected consumption. NGC attributed this to economic slowdown and the rapid expansion of net-metering and rooftop solar. However, the long-term planner considers this decline to be temporary and not sufficient to alter long-term transmission expansion decisions at this stage. It emphasised that the trend will be closely monitored, and adjustments may be made in future plans if the decline persists. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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