Gulf Insider
Belying the Trump administration’s claims that a US blockade on Iran’s use of the Strait of Hormuz has the country on the ropes and its oil infrastructure in near-term peril, a confidential CIA analysis says Iran can persevere another three or four months, if not longer. In a second stark contradiction of White House narratives, US intelligence assesses that the bulk of Iran’s pre-war missile inventory is still intact. The substance of the CIA analysis was first reported by the Washington Post, which attributed the insights to three current officials and one former one who’ve seen it. Over recent weeks, a particular narrative about the blockade has been gaining traction — namely, that Iran’s inability to freely export oil is putting its energy infrastructure in imminent danger of “shut-in” damage that would commence after Iran’s capacity to store oil ran out. We were among the earliest to start focusing on that critical dimension of the conflict, and the shut-in-crisis scenario gained credibility on Wednesday when an oil-sector expert who serves on Iran’s Chamber of Commerce candidly told the New York Times that”the sea blockade is a much more serious threat than even war, and the current stalemate must be broken because the export of […]
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