Morning Mail: budget’s $45bn bottom-line improvement, Starmer’s make-or-break moment, Trump’s ceasefire threat

Want to get this in your inbox every weekday? Sign up for the Morning Mail here , and finish your day with our Afternoon Update newsletter Morning everyone. Tonight’s budget will promise a $45bn improvement in the bottom line over three years, but will Jim Chalmers be able to boast of an era-defining change like his hero, Paul Keating? We have analysis and comment on what’s coming up later. Elsewhere a Muslim group has complained of dirty election tricks, and Donald Trump says the Iran ceasefire is “on life support” as he contemplates more military action. Plus: are claims about supermarket food sustainability true? And do your teeth and gums hold the key to good health? Food labels | Foods in supermarkets boasting environmental terms such as “natural” or “sustainable” are mostly just using marketing speak, rather than verified claims, Australian researchers have found . Budget reveal | Today’s budget will reveal a $45bn improvement in the commonwealth’s bottom line over this and the next three financial years, as Jim Chalmers promises “spending restraint” at a time of high and rising inflation. Changes to tax breaks will be aimed at remaking housing as a need rather than a financial instrument amid warnings about rent increases. Victoria | Muslim Votes Matter has complained to the Victorian Electoral Commission over an anonymous bid to register a political party under the same name before the state election, accusing it of deliberately misleading voters. Australia’s peak Islamic body has meanwhile condemned growing “anti-Muslim sentiment” after a man allegedly threatened worshippers at a Brisbane mosque on Sunday, falsely claiming to have a gun. Exclusive | “Unlimited dark money” will keep flooding into Victorian politics after Labor failed to reach agreement with the Liberals or the Greens about donation reforms the Allan government vowed to fast-track through parliament. Body found | A body found in a “decomposed state” next to an abandoned ute 50km north-west of Lake Cargelligo is believed to be that of Julian Ingram, who is suspected of killing his pregnant former partner in remote New South Wales. Continue reading...

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