The Huffington Post
Restore Britain's Rupert Lowe and Reform UK's Nigel Farage A Reform UK victory in a former “red wall” seat like Makerfield seemed pretty nailed on a month ago. With a strong body of support for Brexit in the region, Nigel Farage’s continued lead in the polls and Reform’s huge success in the May elections – particularly in England’s local councils, where it picked up more than 1,450 seats – the right-wing party would have been pretty confident about securing their ninth MP. It helps that all of Makerfield’s eight wards also voted for Reform on May 7. But, when Labour MP and former minister Josh Simons announced he was stepping aside to make a path for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to get back to Westminster, all bets were off. The famous “King of the North” is popular across the political spectrum and better known than Reform’s Wigan councillor and “plucky plumber”, Robert Kenyon. The first opinion poll of the by-election, from Survation survey of 369 people, put Burnham on top with 43% and Reform just behind on 40%. Reform may have still felt confident about their chances of victory – until, perhaps, they glanced at who was in third place. Restore Britain , a far-right splinter group founded earlier this year by Great Yarmouth MP, multimillionaire and former football chairman, Rupert Lowe, somehow clinched 7% with its candidate Rebecca Shepherd. Lowe was elected as a Reform MP in 2024 before a huge falling out with Farage saw him kicked out of the party. Now, his new group is evidently splitting the right-wing vote in Makerfield, which could cost Reform the seat. Restore has rapidly grown in popularity since it officially launched in February. Lowe has developed a huge Facebook following of 1.2 million in recent months, more than double the number who follow prime minister Keir Starmer on the platform. Vowing to deliver on mass deportations, “net-negative” migration and completely rejecting the alleged “Islamification of Britain”, Lowe is making waves on the right-wing online circuit even appearing on a filmed podcast with famous American conservative, Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson and Rupert Lowe By avoiding much of the mainstream media, Lowe also seems to be speaking to the same base that Reform previously focused on: the anti-establishment crowd. Far-right activist Tommy Robinson (real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon), was prohibited from joining Reform due to his extreme views but is now an open Restore supporter. By contrast, Farage’s party has come under fire for accepting more than 26 ex-Conservative MPs to their ranks. Research director at anti-fascist organisation Hope Not Hate, Joe Mulhall, told HuffPost UK that this by-election demonstrates how Restore has evolved. The far-right party has transformed from being an “online annoyance” – which allowed Farage to paint himself as “more mainstream political force” in comparison – to a “more of an electoral threat” to Reform. “The wake-up call was in the May elections in Great Yarmouth , where Restore picked up all nine seats it ran in,” the expert said, adding that Restore claiming to have more than 130,000 members now. That’s less than half the 278,000 members Reform claims to have, but Restore’s numbers are still significant as it proves it has more support than the British National Party or the National Front ever secured. As UK director of More in Common , Luke Tryl, told HuffPost UK: “Makerfield could be the first real test of the threat level that Restore Britain presents to Reform UK. “In this new political landscape of electoral fragmentation, even a small share of the vote could be decisive. Luke Tryl, More in Common “Our polling and focus group research indicates that voters’ awareness of Restore is largely limited to those who are highly engaged online, on social media platforms such as Facebook. “Awareness among this group, however, is significant and if it continues to grow and translates into a meaningful number of votes, that could prove a problem for Reform. “In this new political landscape of electoral fragmentation, even a small share of the vote could be decisive. If Restore can turn online noise into action at the ballot box, Reform could discover there’s a real threat emerging to their right.” Reform seem rather self-conscious about this threat, too, judging by their bizarre interactions with the media and online this week. The party seemed more rattled over Restore’s success than the concerning their candidate Robert Kenyon’s controversial internet history. Farage ended up attacking X owner and world’s richest man Elon Musk after he promoted Restore on social media, writing: “Only Restore Britain can save Britain.” The Reform leader claimed the tech tycoon was trying to “split the right of British politics as best he can”, adding: “Quite what he’s trying to achieve, I have no idea.” Then Reform MP Sarah Pochin accidentally called her own party by their rivals’ name during a live interview with TALK, before adding in pure panic: “Oh god! I’ll be sacked for saying that!” Tensions ratcheted up even further when the party’s Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick was asked to differentiate Reform’s policies from Restore’s. He told Sky News Reform will not deport foreign nationals who live in social housing, unlike Lowe’s party. But he was swiftly undermined by Reform’s home affairs spokesperson, Zia Yusuf, who wrote on X: “Robert’s answer is not Reform policy.” He insisted: “If a foreign national lives in social housing at taxpayer expense, they automatically fail our economic test and will be deported.” Reform insiders have suggested that they are rather uneasy about their chances in Makerfield now. HuffPost UK understands that Reform believes Restore’s vote is negligible, but a party insider warned the race “is going to be really tight so every vote counts”. They predict the difference between first and second place could be one or two percentage points, but have completely ruled out the idea of a deal with their rivals. They’re also hoping Labour will lose some support to the Green Party , which could split the left-wing vote and bolster their efforts. View at flats decorated with the St George's Cross flag in Ashton-in-Makerfield where Andy Burnham will stand as Labour's candidate for the by-election in Makerfield, England, Friday, May 22, 2026. Meanwhile, Restore is basking in its first major moment in the spotlight and enjoying its role as potential kingmaker. Lowe’s team did not reply when approached for comment by HuffPost UK, but the party leader was very dismissive towards his rivals in an interview with the Spectator . He said: “I would have helped Nigel become prime minister but I don’t think he is fit to become prime minister. My personal opinion is that he is managed opposition. “I think that if you look at the mainstream media, it is now pushing Nigel... so I’m not really interested in Reform.” Even as Lowe plays it cool, his success could end up pulling Reform further right, Mulhall said. He told HuffPost UK that Restore itself is “quite an unstable coalition” and a “ragbag collection of very extreme individuals” who are pretty far removed from most of the British public. He pointed out that it currently attracts both those slightly to the right of Reform all the way to “racial nationalists”. “Where it ends up, and how long it lasts, and how long those individuals kind of put their differences aside in the interest of Restore – rather than breaking out into civil wars – is an unknown question,” he said. But, even if the party itself does not have a long shelf-life, it has already managed to seep into Reform’s policy-making. “Reform’s policy on mass deportation isn’t actually that far away now from where Lowe’s position was when he was booted out,” Mulhall said. “Especially on the issue of immigration, deportation and demographics, I think you’re starting to see Reform feeling they have to shift right, trying to hold onto that rightward flank.” He insisted that it was “wishful thinking” that the two parties might end up taking one another down. However he added: “Restore has the ability to take a chunk out of Farage’s vote share but it has a very clear ceiling in a way Reform does not.” There’s no doubt that Reform has been rattled by the rise of its rival, b ut it will be hard to fully assess Restore Britain’s impact until Makerfield voters flock to the ballot box on June 18. Will Farage be able to hold his nerve until then, or will he find himself adopting further right-wing strategies in a bid to stop the Restore bleed? Subscribe to Commons People , the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster. Related... 9 Of The Most Shocking Unearthed Comments From Reform's Makerfield Candidate Reform MP Condemns By-Election Candidate's 'Completely Inappropriate' Carol Vorderman Tweet Reform Dismisses Sexism Row Around Makerfield Candidate As 'Locker Room Banter' Nigel Farage Slams Elon Musk For Backing Rival Right-Wing Party In Makerfield By-Election
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