The Manila Times
THE Philippines could face a more uncertain security environment as the United States recalibrates its military and political priorities under President Donald Trump, a geopolitical analyst said. Former diplomat and geopolitical analyst Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan told The Manila Times that changes in Washington’s approach to Taiwan and regional defense commitments could diminish Manila’s strategic leverage. Paglinawan said developments under the Trump administration suggest that Washington’s long-standing “Pivot to Asia” strategy is losing momentum as US attention shifts toward the Middle East and places greater emphasis on burden-sharing among allies. Paglinawan, who is vice president for international affairs of the Manila-based Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute (ACPSSI), said that while the legal framework of the Philippine-US alliance remains intact, American military commitments under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) appear to be weakening. He cited reported reductions in rotational US troop deployments, the suspension of military infrastructure projects in the northern Philippines near Taiwan, and cuts in funding for annual joint military exercises as indicators of an “effective operational degradation” of American power projection capabilities in the South China Sea. “The cost is the effective operational degradation of the military architecture that makes American power projection into the South China Sea credible,” Paglinawan said. The shift reflects Trump’s broader foreign policy doctrine, which emphasizes greater responsibility among allies and a reluctance to commit US forces to distant conflicts, particularly in relation to Taiwan. Paglinawan pointed to Trump’s recent remarks cautioning Taiwan against declaring formal independence from China and the US president’s statement that he was “not willing to fight a war 9,500 miles from home.” He said such statements raise questions about Washington’s willingness to defend the so-called “first island chain” — a strategic arc stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines that has long formed a cornerstone of US regional defense planning. Instead, the United States appears to be positioning Japan as its primary security partner in Asia, echoing aspects of former US President Richard Nixon’s “Guam Doctrine,” which called for Asian allies to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. Paglinawan said expanding military cooperation among Tokyo, Washington, and Canberra reflects that transition, describing Japan as America’s “trusted, forward-looking surrogate leader in Asia.” For Manila, Paglinawan warned that an overreliance on Washington could be risky if US security commitments become increasingly conditional. “The West has already conceded the first island chain to China,” he said, arguing that Beijing has steadily pursued a long-term strategy in both the South China Sea and Taiwan while avoiding direct military confrontation with the United States. He noted that China’s military modernization, naval expansion and construction of fortified artificial islands were undertaken years in advance to establish strategic advantages regardless of fluctuations in American military presence. Paglinawan said Beijing has intensified activities near Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal, following reports of reductions in US military deployments in the region. “These are not provocations. They are measurements,” he said, describing what he viewed as China’s calibrated effort to test the regional balance of power. The analyst expressed uncertainty over whether planned US security assistance under the Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act would be fully delivered amid competing domestic priorities and budgetary pressures in Washington. Despite continuing defense cooperation between Manila and Washington, Paglinawan said many countries in the region are increasingly hedging their positions as questions emerge about the long-term reliability of US commitments. In contrast, he argued that China has pursued a more consistent geopolitical strategy since the start of the administration of President Xi Jinping in 2012. Paglinawan previously served as press attaché and spokesman for the Philippine Embassy in Washington and for the Philippine Mission to the United Nations from 1986 to 1993.
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