Prediction markets doubt fast recovery in Hormuz shipping

Prediction markets are skeptical that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal in the coming weeks, despite talk of possible Washington-Tehran diplomacy. As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, traders assigned a 39 percent chance that ship traffic in the Strait will “return to normal” by the end of April in a forum on Polymarket, a prediction market. This probability is down sharply from 77 percent on March 10, reflecting increasing doubts that the waterway will reopen quickly. Meanwhile on Kalshi, another prediction market platform, traders were a bit more positive about that possibility — but still short of a sure bet. Only 46 percent saw traffic returning to normal before May 1, rising to just over half by May 15 and about two‑thirds by June 1. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 percent of global crude oil transit and carries about 70 percent of Korea’s crude imports from the Middle East, has become a major vulnerability for energy security in Korea and around the world. Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, Iran has severely disrupted trade between the Persi

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